000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200911 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JAN 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N96W TO 05N105W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N105W TO 11N115W TO 11N123W TO 15N133W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... RECENT ASCAT PASSES AROUND 20/0314 UTC AND 20/0406 UTC INDICATED PEAK WIND OF 25-26 KT N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W. GIVEN THE WEAKENED RIDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY FLOW HAS CEASED THROUGH THE ISTHMUS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 14N117W...AND ITS INFLUENCE COVERING AN AREA FROM 07N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. AMPLE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 12N115W TO 17N114W. FARTHER SE...ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ... SIMILAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 07N TO 13N ALONG 105W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN INTO A SHARP TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N134W TO 22N133W AND CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND A MODEST RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 11 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS A PATTERN FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH TO STRONG NOCTURNAL NE WINDS PULSING THROUGH PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KT EARLY TUE MORNING...AND TO 25 KT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH A LULL EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TUE NIGHT DUE TO A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAX SEAS TO 6-7 FT EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE WEAKER WED... WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ HUFFMAN