000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE JAN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE E PACIFIC E OF 90W REMAINS 
WEAK AND ILL DEFINED. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N85W TO 04N94W TO LOW 
PRES 1012 MB NEAR 07.5N106W TO 09.5N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N 
AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...                                   
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH SIDES OF 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INDICATE WEAKENING WINDS TO 15 KT OR 
LESS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE HIGH PRES RIDGE 
HAS ALSO WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WINDS AT 20-25 
KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14.5N OVERNIGHT...BUT 
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA WATERS 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS 
MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE REGION SAT MORNING AS A STRONG COLD 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
                                 
A BROAD MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEEP LAYERED 
CYCLONE CENTERED CURRENTLY NEAR 14N117W...AND ITS INFLUENCE 
COVERING AN AREA FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. AMPLE 
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER CYCLONE...WHERE SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 
18N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W. FARTHER SE...ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH AND N OF THE ITCZ...SIMILAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGING E OF A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N AND 90 
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT 
EAST AND WEAKEN INTO A SHARP TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA GRADUALLY 
DIMINISHING. 

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N132.5W TO 14N132W AND 
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
SURFACE TROUGH AND A MODEST RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE AN AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 132W 
AND 136W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 11 FT. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUES DRAPED N OF THIS TROUGH...S OF 25N AND 
W OF 1240...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 8-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND NW 
SWELL. 

AN AREA OF 8-9 FT NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
NE PART OF THE AREA WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT... 
ASSOCIATED WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA...AND PERSIST THROUGH WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
SUPPORTS A PATTERN FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH TO STRONG NOCTURNAL NE 
WINDS PULSING THROUGH PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KT 
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING...AND TO 25 KT TUE NIGHT 
THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH A LULL EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON 
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-8 FT DOWNWIND 
OF THE GULF EACH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA TONIGHT DUE TO A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
AREA. MAX SEAS TO 6-7 FT EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE 
MORNING HOURS. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE WEAKER WED MORNING...WITH 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
$$ 
STRIPLING