000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON JAN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 05N96W. ITCZ IS 
FROM 05N96W TO 09N115W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 103W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINAS CRUZ 
ALONG THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST HAVE BEEN BELOW 20 KT THIS MORNING 
WHICH INDICATES THE NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS 12 
-15 HOURS AGO WHEN GUSTS WERE 25-30 KT. RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS AT 0600 UTC INDICATED PEAK WINDS 30-35 KT IN THE GULF...AND 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED WINDS WOULD FALL BELOW GALE FORCE SHORTLY 
AFTER 1200 UTC. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION A GALE WARNING IS NO 
LONGER IN EFFECT. EXPECT THE ASCAT PASS LATER TODAY TO SHOW MAX  
WINDS 30-32 KT...BUT ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GALE 
FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE REGION SAT MORNING.
                                 
A BROAD MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL 
PORTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
13N118W...AND ITS INFLUENCE COVERING AN AREA FROM 06N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW 
N OF THE ITCZ ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRODUCING 
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
06N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST 
AND WEAKEN INTO A SHARP TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING. 

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N130W TO 19N130W AND 
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS FROM 20N TO 
24N BETWEEN 129W AND 133W...WITH SEAS 10-11 FT IN NW SWELL. A 
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUES S OF 25N W OF 
124W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 8-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. 

AN AREA OF 8-9 FT NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE 
NE PART OF THE AREA WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT... 
ASSOCIATED WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA...AND PERSIST THROUGH WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS A 
PATTERN FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH TO STRONG DIURNAL NE WINDS PULSING 
THROUGH PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 25 KT AT TIMES 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE...WITH A 
LULL EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS ARE 7-8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. LOCAL EFFECTS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER BY TUE MORNING...WITH WINDS BARELY 
REACHING 20 TO 25 KT...AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA TONIGHT DUE TO A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
AREA. MAX SEAS TO 6-7 FT EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE 
MORNING HOURS. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE WEAKER TUE MORNING...WITH 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL