000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON JAN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. FUNNELING OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES WITH EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATING NEAR 
GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS...30 TO 40 KT...WITHIN A NARROW 30 
NM WIDE CORRIDOR FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13N96.5W. THE OVERALL 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING THIS WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM 
SEAS ARE INDICATING 9 TO 14 FT FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE NOT EXPECTED BY GLOBAL MODELS AGAIN IN THE REGION UNTIL FRI 
NIGHT INTO SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N94W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N94W TO 05N101W TO 10N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 
10N113W TO 09N118W TO 12N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 104W AND 
110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                           
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND 
CURRENTLY FOCUSED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
12N120W...WITH INFLUENCE COVERING AN AREA FROM 07N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 127W. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER 
LEVEL LOW AND TROUGHING GENERALLY N OF THE ITCZ...ABUNDANT LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE AND PRODUCE AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 
16N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SHIFT 
GRADUALLY EAST AND WEAKEN INTO A SHARP TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING. 

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N129W TO 22N127W AND 
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS WITHIN 
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A 
ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 21N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. A 
BROADER AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES CONTINUES S OF 
25N W OF 124W...WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE 
AND NW SWELL. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
SUPPORTS A PATTERN FOR FRESH TO STRONG DIURNAL NE WINDS PULSING 
THROUGH PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 25 
KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE... 
BRIEFLY REACHING 30 KT DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH A LULL EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS WILL REACH 8-10 FT DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF MON MORNING. THESE LOCAL EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER 
BY TUE MORNING...WITH WINDS ONLY REACHING 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL 
PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAX SEAS TO 7 FT EXPECTED AT 
PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE 
WEAKER TUE MORNING...WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 
8 FT.
 
$$ 
HUFFMAN