000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130328 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JAN 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TROUGHING TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES BY TONIGHT. WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WILL RETURN AGAIN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 40 KT TUE NIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHT AGAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THIS LONG DURATION GAP WIND EVENT. GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 12-13 FEET WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N93W TO 06N110W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N123W TO 10N124W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE MAINLY WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING MAINLY THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TROUGH OVER WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS EXTENDING FROM 17N118W TO 10N119W BY WED EVENING. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 38N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS OVER THE NW WATERS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST REGION IN ABOUT 24 HOUR FOLLOWED BY A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT ONLY 10-15 KT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL WSW ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 09N89W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KT DURING THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH THESE PULSES OCCURRING EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. $$ GR