000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JAN 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TROUGHING TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES BY TONIGHT. WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WILL RETURN AGAIN DURING THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PATTERN SHOULD REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN TUE/WED...WITH WINDS WEAKEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 12 FEET DURING THE MORNINGS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 07N90W TO 06N105W TO 08N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N123W TO 10N126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE MAINLY WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING MAINLY THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TROUGH OVER WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE NW WATERS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOUR FOLLOWED BY A NEW SET OF NW SWELL. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT ONLY 10-15 KT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL WSW ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 09N91W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KT DURING THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE...WITH THESE PULSES OCCURRING EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. $$ GR