000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JAN 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CEASE BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE MINIMAL GALE PULSES WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. A REINFORCING SURGE LATE THU MORNING WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. NE SWELL FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS INTO CENTRAL WATERS. THIS AREA OF SEAS PRIMARILY ATTRIBUTED TO NE TO E SWELL IS MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CURRENTLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N90W TO 07N120W TO 09N134W THEN RESUMES W OF TROUGH FROM 09N136W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 131W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 30N THEN CONTINUES S AND SW ALONG 30N116W TO 23N119W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N124W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LIES FROM 30N118W TO 28N119W TO 25N123W. BOTH FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INCREASING WINDS BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE FRONTS IS NW SWELL. NW SWELL CURRENTLY LIES IN WATERS W OF 110W AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUE MORNING WHEN ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N134W TO 08N135W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 131W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND 130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NE WATERS ONCE THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES AND AS THE TROUGHING INCREASES. WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TROUGH OVER WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WERE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH MON MORNING. RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MON...KEEPING THE GAP WINDS HERE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TUE MORNING. $$ GR