000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JAN 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CEASE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE MINIMAL GALE PULSES WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. A REINFORCING SURGE LATE THU MORNING WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N77W TO 04N82W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W-NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 10N135W...WITH THE ITCZ THEN TURNING SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS N TO S FROM 07N133W TO 15N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 04N78W... ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N87W TO 05N98W...AND OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N110W TO 12N134W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER LAND. AN ASSOCIATED 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING WITHIN AN OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS DECK NEAR 31.5N120.5W WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS TRAILING 600 NM TO THE S BETWEEN 115W-130W. THE LOW AND FRONTS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 23N144W...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 11N140W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF 23N137W...WITH THE RESULTANT DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 17N140W TO 26N121W...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE THEN CONTINUING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N120W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 110- 134W...PROVIDING ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. EASTERLY TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 14-18N WITHIN 420 NM E OF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 07N134W TO 15N134W WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 20N TO THE W OF 93W NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXING NE... S AND NW SWELL. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM 09N127W TO 14N125W ON TUE. AN AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 9-13 FT ARE EXPECTED FROM 11-17N BETWEEN 120-128W ON TUE. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 13N123W ON TUE NIGHT...SHIFT NE TO NEAR 15N120W ON WED NIGHT...REACH NEAR 18N119W ON THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR 22N119W ON FRI NIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED WITHIN 300 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL WSW ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 09N91W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KT DURING THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE...WITH THESE PULSES OCCURRING EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. $$ NELSON