000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JAN 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING S FROM NE MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TROUGHING TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL PLAINS WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING ON SUN. BY LATE MON...THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF UNITED STATES. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. IN ADDITION... STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE NW GULF. BASED ON THIS WEATHER PATTERN...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING... THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 9-12 FT RANGE TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8-11 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. NE SWELL FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS INTO CENTRAL WATERS. THIS AREA OF SEAS PRIMARILY ATTRIBUTED TO NE TO E SWELL WILL MERGE WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CURRENTLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N88W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N88W TO 04N110W TO 06N120W TO 09N132W THEN RESUMES W OF TROUGH FROM 09N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 30N118W TO 23N122W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 20N140W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS NW SWELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS CURRENTLY REACHING FROM NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO TO THE EQUATOR AT 120W. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE AREA N OF 20N THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE NW SWELL S OF 20N OVERLAPS WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. THESE TRADES ARE DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS HERE ARE IN THE 8- 11 FT RANGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH TUE. A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 13N132W TO 08N133W. THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY LATE MON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD REACHING A POSITION ALONG 135W FROM 10N TO 18N BY LATE MON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MON MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KT NE WINDS IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN. $$ GR