000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100905 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JAN 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING S FROM NE MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TROUGHING TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ. AN 0414 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. GALE CONDITONS WILL RETURN BY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO RELAX. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY MON MORNING...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY MON WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW. MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT THROUGH MON MORNING. NE SWELL FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS INTO CENTRAL WATERS. THIS AREA OF SEAS PRIMARILY ATTRIBUTED TO NE TO E SWELL WILL SHRINK EASTWARD AS THE WINDS IN THE GULFS GENERALLY DIMINISH AND AN AREA OF PRIMARILY NW SWELL CURRENTLY W OF 118W EXPANDS EASTWARD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 02N79W TO 05N89W. THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N89W TO 05N93W TO 04N105W TO 07N116W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 122W AS WELL AS BETWEEN 126W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT LIES FROM 30N120W TO 23N126W AND IS THEN STATIONARY TO 19N140W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT ADVANCES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAKER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS NW SWELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL CURRENTLY LIES FROM NEAR CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO TO 00N130W. NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WATERS W OF 97W BY MON MORNING. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE AREA N OF 20N THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE NW SWELL S OF 20N OVERLAPS WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. THESE TRADES ARE DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS HERE ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH MON MORNING. A TROUGH BUILDING JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 130W IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE TRADES MON MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN 0318 UTC ASCAT- A PASS CONFIRMS N WINDS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MON MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW. 30 KT WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING...BUT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN. $$ SCHAUER