000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU JAN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1035 MB 
LOCATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD 
ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS 
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 
30-40 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. VERY COLD TEMPS 
ACROSS MOST OF THE E AND CENTRAL U.S. WILL REINFORCE THE PRES 
GRADIENT IN SE MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THE GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH FRI 
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE AT AND JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NE TO E SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS EVENT COMBINED WITH A GALE WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IS PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
THAT EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 110W. BY FRI...8-11 FT SEAS WILL COVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N84W TO 05N87W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N87W TO 04N100W TO 08N120W TO 09N130W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 107W...AND FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 112W AND 
121W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 27N122W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
ACROSS N WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS. 
THE FRONT STRETCHES FROM 30N129W TO 20N135W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING LARGE AREA OF FRESH 
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W. TRADE WIND 
CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE E-SE WITH MAX SEAS TO 12-14 FT AT 
PRESENT SUBSIDING TO 10-11 FT ON FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMBINING 
WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT AN 
UNUSUALLY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST 
TO PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. 

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. A COUPLE OF SHIP MOVING ACROSS THIS 
GULF REPORTED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 23-27 KT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO  
25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$ 
GR