000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU JAN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE OF 1052 MB EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. 
ALONG THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO 
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 
30-40 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANOTHER AREA OF VERY 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS 
MOST OF THE E AND CENTRAL U.S. WILL REINFORCE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS E AND SE MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THIS STRONG GAP WIND 
EVENT THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE AT 
AND JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 
NE TO E SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT COMBINED WITH A GALE 
WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS PRODUCING A VERY LARGE 
AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER THAT EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 110W. BY 
THU EVENING...SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S 
OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 125W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THIS SAME STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS COMBINING WITH STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
AND SW CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG GAP WIND EVENT 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH WINDS 30-35 KT EXTENDING SW 
AND DOWNWIND TO 92W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT 
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN PULSE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE 
TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
AND REMAIN 25-30 KT THROUGH FRI EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF 
THE AREA WEAKENS MODESTLY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 
05N77W TO 04N85W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N85W TO 05N110W TO 
08N120W TO 08N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
105W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDS A RIDGE SW OVER NE 
WATERS TO NEAR 18N132W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDS 30N133W TO 19N140W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 
20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY N OF 26N BETWEEN THE 
FRONT AND 130W. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF 
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W. TRADE 
WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY 
DIMINISHING...BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS ON THU. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND WILL PROPAGATE E-SE WITH SEAS 
PEAKING NEAR 14 FT TONIGHT.

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT AND DIMINISH 
TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$ 
GR