000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062103
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE JAN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEAKENED 
SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS LOOSENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DIMINISH 
WINDS BELOW STORM FORCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT 
ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO MAINTAIN THE GALE FORCE 
EVENT THROUGH FRI MORNING. NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT 
COMBINED WITH THE GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
REACHING NEAR 120W BY THU AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL 
ALSO SUPPORT GAP WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ONCE AGAIN 
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE WED 
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N88W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE 
NW WATERS ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 30N125W EXTENDING TO NEAR 
18N138W. LOW PRESSURE OF 980 MB IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 45N154W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A LARGE 
SWATH OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W. 
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES INTO THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING THE MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW 
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE THIS EVENING 
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO STRONG BY WED AFTERNOON AND 
FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON. 
ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA WITH SEAS 
PEAKING NEAR 14 FT BY WED EVENING. 

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT AND 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 
HOURS WED AND THU. 

$$ 
AL