000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JAN 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AT THE MOMENT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH CHIVELA PASS LATER TODAY. THE DENSE...COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER 26-28 CELSIUS WATERS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR AND SEA WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE EARLY THIS EVENING AND REACH STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. AFTER THE PERIOD OF PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE....WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A STRONG GALE AND REMAIN AT GALE FORCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 8-10 FT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO AROUND 20 FT EALRY MON AS THE WINDS INCREASE. NE SWELL GENERATED BY GAP WINDS BOTH FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CREATE A LARGE AREA OF SEAS OVER 8 FT IN WATERS FROM 05N TO 15N E OF 110W THROUGH EARLY TUE. GALE WARNING IN NW WATERS...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS N OF 30N W OF 137W IN THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT LIES W OF THE AREA ALONG 147W N OF 20N. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. THIS WILL TURN THE TROUGH NEGATIVE TILT BEGINNING LATER TODAY. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON OVER FAR NW WATERS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. NW SWELL WILL OUTRUN THE FRONT...WITH SEAS INCREASING 17 FT BY MON MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE MON. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM 32N133.5W TO 20N140W BY TUE MORNING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO WATERS N OF 19N W OF 134W...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N89W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N89W TO 06N100W TO 06N110W TO 06N121W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-91W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 35N125 HAS BEEN COMPRESSED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 120W ACCORDING TO EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTRACT THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH MON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT TUE MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WILL RESULT IN NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 11N92W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BEGINNING EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT BY EARLY MON AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE IS FORCED EASTWARD BY THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS REPLACED BY STRONGER RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDING S ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PENETRATE WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT...MEETING UP WITH THE STRONG BREEZE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MON MORNING AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 12 FT WHEN WINDS PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE MORNING HOURS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND LEE TROUGHING W OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL BEGIN TO SHORTLY INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG N-NW FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 24N. SEAS THERE WILL BUILD TO 8 FT BY EARLY ON ON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE