000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT JAN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 03N85W....WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N85W TO 
06N100W TO 08N114W TO 05N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS 
FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

NW OF THE AREA A FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 991 MB OCCLUDED LOW PRES 
AREA CENTERED NEAR 39N156W TO 40N145W TO 35N144W. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 20N148W. THE LOW CENTER AND 
ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO AN 
ELONGATED RIDGE PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG SE 
WINDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 135W BY LATE 
SAT...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN A MIX OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL 
AND SE WIND WAVES. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUPPORTING UPPER 
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS 
AREA AS WELL SAT AND SUN.

THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES HAS DISPLACED THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FARTHER NORTH...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING ONLY 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 120W. 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED 
SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE TRADE WIND BELT...WHICH WILL LARGELY PERSIST 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES A 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 114W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING TRADEWIND CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORTING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. THE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES N OF THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WINDS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT THROUGH MON MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL USHER ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY SUNDAY...REACHING GALE FORCE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. 
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS HINT THAT THIS WILL BE A STRONG GALE 
OR EVEN PUSHING STORM CRITERIA...DUE TO THE COLD DENSE AIR 
EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS 
THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS LATE SUN. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST 
HAS 45 KT GAP WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY MONDAY.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRESENTLY 15-20 KT NW FLOW GOES DOWN 
THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 4 FT. LOOKING 
AHEAD... HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA 
THIS WEEKEND... AND WILL INDUCE 20-25 KT NW FLOW WITH SEAS TO 6 
FT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

$$
FORMOSA