000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU JAN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N80W TO 06N85W TO 
05N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
05N90W TO 07N110W TO WEST OF 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON AXIS E OF 
80W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE REACHING FROM 
30N108W ACROSS S BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO 22N117W. RECENT SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS INDICATED MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW 
BEHIND THE FRONT. A PAIR OF CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE 
PASSES INDICATED 8 FT WAVE HEIGHTS LIMITED TO THE WATERS N OF 
27N E OF 130W. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FROM HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 43N135W TO 20N120W. 

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN GULF REGIONS. HIGH 
PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF 20 
TO 25 KT NW WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF WATERS FROM TONIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE FRI. SEAS WILL 
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT.

FARTHER WEST...ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT PASSES ALONG WITH SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW PRES N OF HAWAII NEAR 
29155W. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 
36 HOURS...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. LOOKING AHEAD...THIS TREND WILL REVERSE 
STARTING LATE FRI AND SAT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH N OF HAWAII SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE...SUPPORTING 
FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NW DISCUSSION 
AREA...GENERALLY N OF 20N W OF 135W BY SUNDAY.

AN AREA ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 125W TRADEWINDS ARE 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS ARE TO 9 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL. EXPECT 
THIS AREA TO DECREASE IN 24 HOURS ONLY TO GET MUCH LARGER IN 48 
HOURS.    

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES N OF THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH LATE FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...REINFORCED 
RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW STRONG PULSES TO PERSIST INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WINDS HAVE JUST DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN GALE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER DECREASE TO 20 KT 
LESS BY EARLY FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL USHER ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUNDAY...REACHING GALE FORCE BY LATE 
SUNDAY.

$$
FORMOSA