000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED DEC 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0900 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS 
INCREASED THE NLY WIND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 20-30 
KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH 
WED NIGHT FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE...N-NE 30-35 KT 
WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. THE GALE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WINDS WILL 
DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THU...AND FURTHER DECREASE TO 
20 KT LESS LATE THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH 9N84W TO 5N91W. ITCZ FROM 5N91W TO 6N120W TO 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N AND WITHIN 
50 NM S OF AXIS FROM 137W-140W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 135W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS 
FROM 32N122W TO 15N124W. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 29N129W TO 32N130W. A 90-100 KT 
JETSTREAM IS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH FROM  25N136W TO 
17N124W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
15N107W TO 3N97W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
THE GULF PANAMA AT 6N78W WITH RIDGE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE N 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 
SEAS TO 8 FT. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AND 
SEAS 8-10 FT BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN BACK TO 20-25 KT LATE THU 
NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N139W TO 20N132W TO 15N140W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NE HAS 
INCREASED E TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 9-11 FT N OF 27N W OF 
133W. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AND WINDS WILL 
DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SE SWELLS WILL BE IN THE 8-
10 FT RANGE N OF 26N W OF 135W.

$$
DGS