000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON DEC 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N77W ALONG 6N81W TO 5N93W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N93W 6N124W TO 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO MONSOON TROUGH E OF 
81W AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 133W-137W. 


...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN W OF 115W. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE CONUS DESERT SW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
THE EXTREME S BAJA PENINSULA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS ALONG 14N110W 
TO NEAR 2N104W. 

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION ALONG 26N140W 19N138W TO 17N140W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND 
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THUS 
GENERATING STRONG WINDS E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. THIS 
FRONT IS ALSO SPREADING RAIN WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. 

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO GENERATE 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING BEFORE PULSING STRONG 
AGAIN EARLY WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI.  
 
THE STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO GIVING A SWATH OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEAS TO 
8 FT. THIS WINDS WILL PULSE IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

$$
PAW