000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290302 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON DEC 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N84W TO 05N95W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 08N134W TO BEYOND 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 30N128W TO 17N139W. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HELP FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS BY MON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP TO DIMINISH WINDS TO 25 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. WITH THE TIMING OF THE WINDS COINCIDING WITH PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KT MON EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE EVENING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. $$ AL