000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260920 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI DEC 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N80W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N92W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N112W TO 26N125W THEN STATIONARY TO 28N145W. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SMALL TRANSIENT LOW PRES AREA ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS LIKELY WEAKENED AND SHIFTED INLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRES FROM 28N TO 30N OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH VARIOUS ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OF THE FRONT BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WHILE WEAKENING...AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. SHORT PERIOD N SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL N OF 25N E OF 125W WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FT. TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC W OF 120W REMAIN LIMITED TO 15 TO 20 KT OR LESS. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES NE OF HAWAII AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 22N W OF 135W THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY LATE SAT. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RAPIDSCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 02 UTC INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT GAP WINDS STILL ACTIVE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT BELOW THE GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WERE ACTIVE EARLIER YESTERDAY. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES N OF AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND IS SHIFTING WEST...ALLOWING FOR GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH FURTHER TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER TODAY. AN AREA OF REMAINING NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION AND REACHING FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 107W LATE TODAY. LOOKING AHEAD...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT STRONG PULSE OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS IS ENHANCING GAP WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 0330 UTC INDICATED WINDS TO 30 KT. THE STRONG GAP WINDS WILL GENERATE A PLUME OF 8-11 FT SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOURCE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH 8-9 FT SWELL REACHING TO 101W SAT. A WEAKER DIURNAL PULSE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THROUGH SAT. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN