000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU DEC 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED TO 
THE NE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WITH COLD DENSE AIR 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 15 
FT BY EARLY THU. HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY 
SHIFT EAST THU MORNING LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE 
WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THU 
LATE INTO THU NIGHT...AND BELOW 20 KT BY FRI. NE SWELL IN EXCESS 
OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION AFTER 
THE ONSET OF THE GALE EVENT...AND REACH FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 
98W AND 105W FRI MORNING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N100W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N100W TO 06N112W TO 08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...AND 
FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 103W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N105W THAT 
ANCHORS AN OVERALL BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH TEXAS SW  
OVER NW MEXICO TO 09N121W. THIS BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS N OF 06N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 125W OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE LOW WILL 
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGHING OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT ENERGY 
LIFTING N-NE INTO THU. AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL 
WEATHER WILL BE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CUTOFF UPPER 
LEVEL LOW N OF HAWAII CENTERED NEAR 27N157W. THE PATTERN WILL 
TRANSITION TO ONE WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND DEEPENING LOW PRES W OF THE 
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING E-SE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 
135W BY LATE THU...WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH 
TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH.

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS 
W OF 115W AND SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 115W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS E OF 125W THU LATE THROUGH 
SAT. SHORT PERIOD NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BY PERSISTENT STRONG 
WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
BRING 12-14 FT SEAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W LATE THU... 
DECAYING TO BELOW 10 FT BY LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN MIXED NW AND N SWELL WILL PERSIST N OF 23N BETWEEN 114W 
AND 129W THROUGH LATE FRI.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE LATEST NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ONCE 
AGAIN REACHED THE 20 KT OR LESS THRESHOLD ACROSS THE GULF THIS 
EVENING...FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS ANTICIPATED BY SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A 
WEAK COLD FRONT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG NE WINDS TO  
30 KT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE GULF REGION BEGINNING THU NIGHT 
LATE INTO FRI...AND PULSING TO A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT EARLY SAT.
  
$$
HUFFMAN