000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED DEC 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...COLD DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED 
WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL FUNNEL THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15-16 FT EARLY THU. HIGH 
PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THU... 
ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO QUICKLY DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE THU AND THU NIGHT...AND BELOW 20 KT EARLY FRI.  
NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE GULF 
AFTER THE ONSET OF THE GALE EVENT...AND REACH TO NEAR 105W FROM 
07N TO 14N FRI MORNING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO 09N86W 
TO 07N102W. ITCZ FROM 07N102W TO 06N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 95W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N107W ANCHORS A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN TEXAS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 07N110W. THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF ITS USUAL LATITUDE TO 
04N-08N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W THEN ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND LIFT 
N-NE THU. AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL WEATHER WILL BE A 
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW N OF HAWAII. THE PATTERN 
WILL TRANSITION TO ONE WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF AREA AND DEEPENING LOW PRES W OF THE 
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SE WINDS N OF 25N W OF 135W 
BY LATE FRI...WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH.

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS 
W OF 120W AND SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 125W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH N BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND ADJACENT WATERS E OF 125W FRI AND SAT. SHORT PERIOD NW TO N 
SWELL GENERATED BY PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES 
AND THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING 12-13 FT SEAS N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W LATE THU...DECAYING TO BELOW 10 FT BY LATE 
FRI. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND N SWELL WILL PERSIST N OF 
23N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W THROUGH LATE FRI.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IN THE GREAT 
BASIN IS SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT 
E TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 
EXPECT FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BY SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG NE WINDS TO  
30 KT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE GULF BEGIN LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI.
  
$$
MUNDELL