000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED DEC 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED NIGHT. GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY WED AFTERNOON...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WED EVENING AS A COOLER AND DENSER AIR MASS FUNNELS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING THEN DIMINISH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 17 FT BY EARLY ON THU. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT ON FRI. NE SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE GULF AFTER THE ONSET OF THE GALE EVENT...AND REACH TO NEAR 102W FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N80W TO 08N87W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 06N107W TO 08N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTH- CENTRAL MEXICO SW TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 14N111W AND SW TO A BASE NEAR 07N114W. THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGHING IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 09N111W TO 14N110W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION IS AIDED BY MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BY EARLY THU...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN AS BROAD TROUGHING WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA N OF 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. NW OF THE TROUGH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA FOCUSED ON A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N127W. MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W AND OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTER SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N132W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SE TO 18N111W AND SW TO 27N140W. THE INDUCED PRES GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION FROM 07N TO 12N W OF 126W PER EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHERWISE...8 TO 11 FT SEAS PRIMARILY IN NW SWELLS ARE NOTED W OF A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 23N114W TO 00N130W AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU...HOWEVER A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS RAISING SEAS TO 12 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA THU. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH LATE WED INDUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG TO POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX WED MORNING...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED EVENING. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO OR AROUND 8 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT SURGE THROUGH THE GULF WILL BEGIN LATE ON THU INTO EARLY FRI. $$ HUFFMAN