000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE DEC 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH WED NIGHT. GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY WED AFTERNOON...THEN 
FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WED EVENING AS A COOLER AND 
DENSER AIR MASS FUNNELS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS 
WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING THEN DIMINISH. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 
AROUND 19 FT BY EARLY ON THU. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT ON FRI. NE SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT 
WILL PROPAGATE SW AWAY FROM THE GULF AFTER THE ONSET OF THE GALE 
EVENT...AND REACH TO NEAR 100W FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 
100W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 07N77W TO 09N85W TO 08N91W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 07N105W TO 
08N120W...AND TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
106W AND 112W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL 
MEXICO SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N110W AND SW TO NEAR 10N118W. 
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
EVIDENT SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W 
...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE 
UPPER LOW. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE INTO 
WED AS THE UPPER CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. 

NW OF THE TROUGH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH 
ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N W OF 110W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY 
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... 
STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 240-300 NM 
S OF A JET STREAM BRANCH THAT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 
18N140W...AND DIVES SEWD TO 09N118W BEFORE TURNING NEWD TO JUST 
SE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 16N110W...AND EXTENDING FURTHER NEWD TO 
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT MANZANILLO...THEN CONTINUES 
NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE SE U.S. N 
AND NW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS 
QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH ONLY PATCHES OF MAINLY BROKEN 
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS NOTED MOVING TO THE SW AND W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTER SUPPORTED BY THE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 36N130W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SEWD TO 32N129W AND TO 
17N119W. THE INDUCED PRES GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 
135W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ALLOWING FOR STRONG N WINDS TO BE PRESENT 
N OF 29N BETWEEN 122W-128W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 9-10 FT RANGE. 
A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST TONIGHT WILL 
WEAKEN THE RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY 
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. 8 TO 11 FT SEAS PRIMARILY IN NW SWELLS W 
OF A LINE FROM 30N115W TO 08N102W TO 03.4S120W WILL SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE THROUGH THU...HOWEVER A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS RAISING 
SEAS TO 12 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA 
THU. 

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN INDUCING A TIGHT PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO 
BRING STRONG TO POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE NW WINDS OVER MUCH OF 
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX DURING WED 
MORNING...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT AND 
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY WED EVENING. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND...OR BRIEFLY AT 8 FT OVER PORTIONS 
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE 
SEAS  WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY WED 
AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE    
20-25 KT SURGE THROUGH THE GULF WILL BEGIN LATE ON THU.
  
$$
AGUIRRE