000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE DEC 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ON TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY
20-30 KT WINDS WILL INITIALLY SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY WED MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY WED EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.
EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 03.5N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 05.5N86W
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ 
WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 114W...THEN THE
ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N105W
TO 08N117W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N114W TO 15N110W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N113W TO 18N101W WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 
11N117W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION 
NEAR 32N130W WITH THE ASSOCIATED TS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF 
DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 21N W
OF 110W. 

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
16N140W TO 08N116W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE 
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF 
LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 
17N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 16N107W. THE GRADIENT 
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS 11-13 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL 
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 122-126W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 
THE RIDGE...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 103W...RESULTING 
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE 
CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N EARLY TUE NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR 
27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.     

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. 
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING 
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH 
WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED 
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY 
EARLY THU. 
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT 
SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI 
AFTERNOON.
  
$$
NELSON