000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA  
AT 06N78W TO 07N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A 
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 05-07N TO BEYOND 
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED 
OVER AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 03.5N78W TO 07N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 05N88W TO 06N95W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N114W 
TO 21N120W TO 12N136W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN PRECEDED BY UPPER MOISTURE THAT IS 
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DENSE PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE 
ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-165W...AND CONTINUES 
NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A  
LINE FROM 10N130W TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FANNING 
OUT ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT IS 
DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 28N124W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-
15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES 
TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN 
WATERS WATERS W OF 106W. A POST-FRONTAL RIDGE IS BUILDING E FROM 
28N140W TO 26N116W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT ACROSS 
THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE ALL TO W OF 130W. 
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD E TO ALONG 125W OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT... 
BUT THE NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SWELL RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF SEAS OF 6-8 FT SW OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL CONTINUE SW AND 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT LATE NIGHT 
PULSES TO 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. 
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY FRI.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING 
WEEKEND. 
 
$$
NELSON