000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO 
07N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ NEAR 06N90W. THE ITCZ 
REACHES FROM 06N90W TO 04N95W TO 06N105W TO 08N130W TO 
BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W 
OF 120W BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE 
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N W OF 
120W. A 0645 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG ROUGHLY 130W FROM 06N TO 10N. A FEW 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING INTO THE 
ITCZ. SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OUT OF THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE MAINTAINING SEAS OF TO 9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE 
REGION BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ AND 
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRONG TRADE 
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W. THIS AREA WILL 
GROW IN SIZE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS...MIXING NE 
WIND WAVES WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. 

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N140W. A 
SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX IS PRESENT FROM 16N120W FLOWING NE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO N CENTRAL 
MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF 
THE JET...DELIVERING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO 
THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. REINFORCING 
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIG 
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND 
ADJACENT WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 
WINDS TO 30 KT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN 
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOWER 
PRES FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE 
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY ALLOWING THE 
GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING. 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 FT THIS MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES 
ENCOUNTER LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI 
MORNING.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN. 
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN