000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W 
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W... 
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N129W...THEN 
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
OVER AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 129W...AND 
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA 
BOUNDED BY 11-23N BETWEEN 107-122W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N118W TO 20N124W 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE AN 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N117W TO 27N117W
...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND ITS AXIS. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THIS 
TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN 
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 21N110W TO 00N129W. THE SURFACE TROUGH 
SHOULD VANISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING TO 
PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 106W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT 
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS 
THE TROPICS W OF 118W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED AND 
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED MORNING AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER 
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH FRI 
MORNING.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME NW AT 10 KT THU AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 
KT ON FRI AND 20 KT LATE SUN. 
 
$$
RAMOS/NELSON