000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N81W 
TO 04N93W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N114W... 
CONTINUES NW THROUGH A SECOND EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N128W...THEN 
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ 
BETWEEN 86-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N113W TO 
07N120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138-144W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF OF THE ITCZ WITHIN THE AREA 
BOUNDED BY 11-18N BETWEEN 112-120W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
ITS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N119W TO 23N118W 15N130W. AT THE SURFACE AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N118W TO 23N125W TO 
20N140W...WITH ONLY NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 180 NM E OF 
THIS TROUGH WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER MOISTURE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
ADVECTED NE ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN 
TEXAS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 
A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 23N112W TO 00N133W. THE SURFACE FRONT 
SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NW SWELL CONTINUING 
TO PROPAGATE E TO ALONG 105W BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT. AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS E ALONG 28N THE GRADIENT 
WILL INCREASE THE NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS 
THE TROPICS W OF 120W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED MORNING 
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AGAIN. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 
ABOUT 8 FT EARLY WED AS THE N-NE WIND WAVES ENCOUNTER LONG 
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THAT EXISTS ALONG THE MEXICAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TO THE S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY THU.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT ON FRI-SAT AND 20-25 KT LATE SUN. 
 
$$
NELSON/RAMOS