000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  
      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
07N86W TO 04N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N91W TO 07N110W TO 
09N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N129W TO 06N132W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 
106W AND 109W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W...AND NEAR 
08N129W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO 24N131W WHERE IT BEGINS TO 
DISSIPATE TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS 
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. IN 
ADDITION...A SHIP NEAR 28N136W REPORTED 18 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS 
TO 17 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST 
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST 
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA 
W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N120W TO 10N100W TO 03.4S98W. 
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST 
AREA BY WED.  

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE 
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS 
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS PARTICULARLY 
FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N118W WILL DRIFT SE 
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE TUE. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS 
ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE WATERS N OF 22N E OF 
122W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. 

THE MOST RECENT RAPIDSCAT SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 15N118W TO 09N120W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH IN THE SE WIND FLOW. A 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  
THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 
WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
07N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY 
WED MORNING...ENHANCED IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BRIEFLY REACHING 8 FT. EXPECT NE 
TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY 
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
GR