000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  
      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
07N87W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 07N110W TO 
09N123W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N128W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W... 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SAMPLED MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT 
AND ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED 13-17 FT SEAS W OF THE FRONT. IN 
ADDITION...A SHIP NEAR 28N136W REPORTED 18 KT NW WINDS WITH SEAS 
TO 17 FT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST 
REGION WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES CURRENTLY PROPAGATING ACROSS MOST 
OF THE WATERS W OF 110W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVER THE AREA 
W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 26N115W TO 11N100W TO 03.4S100W. 
ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST 
AREA BY WED.  

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE 
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS JUST N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS 
THE NW PORTION THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC W OF 130W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N118W WILL DRIFT SE 
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TUE. 

A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 
11N125W TO 06N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WHERE 
THE TROUGH MEETS THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 
123W AND 128W. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD. A WEAK 1010 MB 
LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N87W. THIS LOW 
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...ENHANCED 
IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 
LATE WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE 
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
GR