000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150845
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  
      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 08N85W TO 
04N95W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING TO 09N115W THEN 
WEST BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N129W TO 22N140W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE GENERALLY 
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. VARIOUS SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 00 UTC  
INDICATED SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 13 FT...A LITTLE LOWER THAN 
MWW3 GUIDANCE INITIALIZATION. NONETHELESS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS COMES 
AFTER ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL DELIVERED SEAS TO 8 FT TO MOST 
OF THE REGION AS FAR EAST AS 105W. WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TODAY...REINFORCING NW SWELL FROM THE SECOND 
SWELL TRAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 
FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W THROUGH MID WEEK. 

HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 135W. TRADE 
WIND CONVERGENCE WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ 
W OF 135W EARLIER BUT THIS HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED. STRONGER HIGH 
PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPORTING 
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC W OF 125W BY WED.

EAST OF THE FRONT...1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N120W WILL DRIFT SE 
AND DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE 
WEAKENING HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N EAST OF 135W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH REACHING FROM 16N120W TO 10N130W IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF 
WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W. 

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO 
BY MID WEEK WILL DELIVER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE NIGHT...ENHANCED 
IN PART BY LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 
LATE WED MORNING. SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT BRIEFLY IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE TUE 
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN