000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN DEC 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  
      
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
08N86W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N93W TO 08N112W 
THEN RESUMES W OF A TROUGH FROM 07N115W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS W 
OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N132W THEN EXTENDS 
SW TO NEAR 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW 
WINDS N OF 29N JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MAINLY MODERATE NW 
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATED 
10 TO 15 FT SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 20 FT IS MOVING  
INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER EXTEND ALL THE WAY SE TO A LINE FROM 23N110W TO 10N100W 
TO 04N100W TO 03.4S105W. THESE SEAS ARE MAINLY DUE TO AN OLDER 
SET OF NW SWELL WHICH ARRIVED BEHIND THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND REACH A POSITION FROM 30N125W 
TO 26N128W TO 22N140W BY 24 HOURS. THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT 
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT STRETCHES FROM 30N117W TO 22N122W 
BY 48 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
TO THE SE WHILE THE OLD AREA OF NW SWELL CURRENTLY WELL OUT 
AHEAD OF THIS NEW FRONT DECAYS.

EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 
30N122W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 12N112W... 
AND ALSO SW TO NEAR 26N130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE 
REACHING 26N120W BY 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS 
PERSIST IN THE AREA OF THE HIGH PRES N OF 20N E OF 130W. 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE. 
 
A WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N112W 
TO 07N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 
108W AND 116W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N86W. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA... AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO 
MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS 
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE N OF 28N MON NIGHT INTO 
EARLY TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULFS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE 
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 

$$
GR