000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131442
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT DEC 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
      
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC COMBINED WITH 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS 
UP TO 11 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE 
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS SUN MORNING AS THE 
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N91W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N91W TO 06N107W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N110W TO 
07N125W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 87W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA  
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 29N114W TO 21N126W 
THEN STATIONARY TO 19N140W. 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
31N129W IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE AREA N OF 15N 
AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE SEAS UP TO 12 TO 14 FT W OF 
THE FRONT...WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS ENCOMPASSING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA W OF 100W.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PORTION OVER OUR 
WATERS DISSIPATING BY SUN MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC APPROACHES TONIGHT. A SMALL 
PATCH OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT IN THE 
FAR NW CORNER TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY SUN MORNING AS THE NEW 
FRONT STRETCHES FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. A REINFORCING SET OF NW 
SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP 
TO 20 FT NEAR 30N140W LATE SUN MORNING.

A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS OR PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE 
ITCZ W OF 110W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED 
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE W OF 110W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO DROP SE-S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH 
ONLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS OF 2-4 FT BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL LIKELY ONLY PULSE TO FRESH LEVELS 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS UP TO 8 FT WILL SUBSIDE LATER 
THIS MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY