000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT DEC 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  
      
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS AND RESULTANT 8-10 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT IS 
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE TONIGHT TO SAT EVENING AS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 
LATEST NAM MODEL RUN. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH TO 
20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN MORNING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 09N79W TO 06N90W TO 
07N99W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N99W TO 08N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N138W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 
85W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH 30N116W TO 25N120W TO 20N130W TO 19N140W. THE LATEST 
REMOTE SENSED AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS S OF 
30N...HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 12-16 FT COVERS THE 
AREA W OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER COVERS AN INCREDIBLY LARGE AREA REACHING TO A LINE FROM 
28N115W TO 08N97W TO 01N140W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
ACROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING E OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. THE EDGE 
OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA SAT 
NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT 
WILL EXTEND SUN EVENING FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W. W OF FRONT 
WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER A REINFORCING SET OF NW 
SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING 
TO UP TO 19 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS AIDING SE-S FLOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30 KT. 
THE LATEST RAP AND GFS PARALLEL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE FORECASTING 
THESE WINDS TO LESSEN 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT EVENING.       

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FT 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF REGION.
 
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND ITCZ...ONE OVER PANAMA NEAR 09N79W...AND ONE NEAR THE 
WESTERN AOR TERMINUS AT 08N138W. CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED WITH 
THE LATTER LOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED WITH EITHER 
LOW.

$$
FORMOSA