000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI DEC 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  
      
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS AND RESULTANT 8-10 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT IS 
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT AS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 
LATEST GFS PARALLEL MODEL RUN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN TO 
20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO 
RELAX.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 09N79W TO 06N90W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 05N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N137W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH 30N117W TO 26N120W TO 21N130W TO 19N140W. THE LATEST 
REMOTE SENSED AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS S OF 
30N. LARGE NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 12-19 FT COVERS THE AREA W OF 
THE FRONT...WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER 
COVERS AN INCREDIBLY LARGE AREA REACHING TO A LINE FROM 28N115W 
TO 08N97W TO 02N140W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS 
THE AREA...SHIFTING E OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. THE EDGE OF SEAS 
OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE THROUGH 
48 HOURS.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA SAT 
NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT... 
DIMINISHING BY 18 UTC SUN AS THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 
24N140W. A REINFORCING SET OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE 
FRONT WITH SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO UP TO 19 FT BEHIND THIS 
NEXT FRONT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS AIDING SE-S FLOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT. 
THE LATEST RAP AND GFS PARALLEL MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES WINDS 
TO 30 KT APPROACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE...HOWEVER CURRENTLY 
EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN JUST LESS THAN GALE. THE LATEST SREF 
34 KT PROBABILITIES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF BY 18 UTC SAT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THEN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FT 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF REGION.
 
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND ITCZ...ONE OVER PANAMA NEAR 09N79W...AND ONE NEAR THE 
WESTERN AOR TERMINUS AT 08N137W. CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED WITH 
BOTH LOWS AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM EITHER IS EXPECTED.

$$
FORMOSA