000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI DEC 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
      
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS AND RESULTANT 8-10 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT IS 
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT AS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 
LATEST GFS PARALLEL MODEL RUN. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN TO 
20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO 
RELAX.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N81W    
TO 06N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N110W TO 06N125W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND ALSO 
BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH 30N119W TO 25N125W TO 19N140W. THE LATEST REMOTE SENSED 
AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS S OF 30N. LARGE NW SWELL 
WITH SEAS OF 12-19 FT COVERS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE 
LEADING EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERS AN INCREDIBLY 
LARGE AREA REACHING TO A LINE FROM 28N115W TO 08N97W TO 00N134W. 
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING E OF 
THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. THE EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA SAT 
NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT... 
DIMINISHING BY 12 UTC SUN AS THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N134W TO 
26N140W. A REINFORCING SET OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE 
FRONT WITH SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO UP TO 17 FT BEHIND THIS 
NEXT FRONT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS AIDING SE-S FLOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT. 
THE LATEST RAP AND GFS PARALLEL MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES WINDS 
TO 30 KT APPROACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE...HOWEVER CURRENTLY 
EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN JUST LESS THAN GALE. THE LATEST SREF 
34 KT PROBABILITIES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF BY 12 UTC SAT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THEN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FT 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF REGION.
 
A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND ITCZ...ONE AT THE EASTERN TERMINUS NEAR 08.5N81W...AND ONE 
NEAR THE WESTERN AOR TERMINUS AT 08N135W. CONVECTION IS VERY 
LIMITED WITH BOTH LOWS AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM EITHER IS 
EXPECTED.

$$
LEWITSKY