000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI DEC 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  
       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N94W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM 06N94W TO 08N105W TO 05N116W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N134W TO 07N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 08N101.5W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 
100W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS 
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 30N126W TO 21N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF STRONG SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND 
FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI AND REACH NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SAT. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT 
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH SAT TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA W 
OF 100W BY SAT MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE 
NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT MAINLY N 
OF 27N ON SUN AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ANOTHER 
SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH 
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 17-18 FT BY LATE SUN.
 
WEAKENING RIDGE SE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT OVER 
NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG 
30N BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH SAT. THE 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL COVER MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 
105W. EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE ON SAT...PARTICULARLY W OF 135W. 

A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 
09N134W. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF 
THE LOW CENTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT 
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE MAINLY N OF 14N IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN FROM A MODERATE 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER 
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS WILL BE IN 
EXCESS OF 25 KT IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AIDED BY 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT AT TIMES. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF REGION.
   
$$
GR