000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU DEC 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  
       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N100W TO 06N110W TO 
05N120W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N133W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 
109W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS 
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 22N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF STRONG SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND 
FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI AND REACH NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SAT. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH SAT TO 
COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W BY SAT MORNING. 
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED N OF 27N AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT SUN AS IT 
SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH ANOTHER SET OF LARGE LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL ON THE HORIZON.
 
WEAKENING RIDGE SE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT OVER 
NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG 
30N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. 
TRADE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND 
FRI AS A RESULT.

A WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 
09N133W. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF 
LOW CENTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE N OF 14N IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN FROM A MODERATE PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER PRESSURE 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 
25 KT IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT AT TIMES. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE SOURCE REGION.
   
$$
GR