000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU DEC 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 05N101W TO 09N131W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 
108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W. A RAPID 
SCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0945 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW 
WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND STRONG W-NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. 
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI AND REACH 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SAT. A WELL 
DEFINED SHEAR LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EXISTING FRONT W OF 
THE NEUTRAL POINT WHERE FRESH NE WINDS TO THE NORTH CONVERGE 
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E-NE WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE 
THROUGH SAT TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W BY SAT 
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED N 
OF 27N SUN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS 
WITH ANOTHER SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ON THE HORIZON.
 
WEAKENING RIDGE SE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY OVER 
NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG 
30N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. 
TRADE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND 
FRI AS A RESULT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE N OF 14N IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN FROM A MODERATE PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER PRESSURE 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 
25 KT IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT AT TIMES IN TEHUANTEPEC AND 
UP TO 150 NM DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE SOURCE REGION.
   
$$
MUNDELL