000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED DEC 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  
       
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W TO 05N100W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N100W TO 06N115W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY REACHING 31N140W. FRESH TO 
STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT COVERING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 132W. THE FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL EXTEND 
FROM 30N128W TO 22N140W BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 14 TO 21 FT IN NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW 
THE FRONT. IT WILL RETAIN CONSIDERABLE ENERGY THROUGH SAT AS IT 
REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY FRI.  THE FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FRI NIGHT 
AND SAT. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW 
WATERS LATE SAT AND EARLY SUN. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND WEAKENING HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 26N128W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES ACROSS WESTERN 
WATERS NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...PARTICULARLY FROM 07N-11N 
W OF 135W. THE HIGH WILL FADE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ TO DIMINISH AND WIND WAVES S OF 15N TO SUBSIDE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 1634 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THIS GULF. IZTEPEC IN THE STATE OF 
OAXACA IS CURRENTLY REPORTING GUSTY WINDS OF 22-25 KT. BASED OF 
THIS...THE GALE WARNING HAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRED AT 1800 UTC. 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WEEK MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WAVE MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 12-14 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT 
THROUGH FRI. A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PROPAGATE 
AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE SOURCE REGION.
   
$$
GR