000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED DEC 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALES IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. ASCAT PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWED MINIMAL GALES TO 
35 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 
TO 14-15 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT THROUGH FRI. A LARGE AREA OF 
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 06N77W TO 05N102W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N102W TO 09N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE SOURCE REGION.

A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO TROPICAL WATERS TONIGHT. IT WILL 
RETAIN CONSIDERABLE ENERGY THROUGH SAT AS IT REACHES THE COAST 
OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MAX SEAS WILL BE 
14-20 FT N OF 25N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST 
N OF 30N. FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND 
THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED INTO THU. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 
REACH THE FAR NW WATERS LATE SAT AND EARLY SUN. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND WEAKENING HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 28N127W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES ACROSS WESTERN 
WATERS NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE HIGH WILL FADE TONIGHT 
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...ALLOWING 
TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO DIMINISH AND WIND WAVES S OF 
15N TO SUBSIDE.
   
$$
MUNDELL