000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED DEC 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO 40 
KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER... 
WHILE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY 
FRI...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED 
TO PULSE THROUGH EARLY FRI DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS DUE TO PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WAVE MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS AT 16 FT INITIALLY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY FRI AS WINDS DIMINISH. A LARGE AREA OF 
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW THEN W AWAY 
FROM THE SOURCE REGION REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N100W TO 04N110W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N110W TO 08N122W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N E OF 80W...AND FROM 11N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE SOURCE REGION.

MAINLY NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 16 FT COVERS A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN WATERS. THE AREA OF SEAS 
8 FT OR GREATER WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY 
FRI...WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED NEAR 30N140W. A STRONG COLD 
FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS WED NIGHT 
THROUGH FRI...AND RETAIN CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AS IT REACHES THE 
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. MAXIMUM 
SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 15-21 FT N OF 25N BEHIND THE FRONT AS 
IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 30N...HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
JUST AHEAD OF IT AND BEHIND IT ARE ANTICIPATED BEGINNING WED 
INTO WED NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW 
WATERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. 

A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 
18N114W AND SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE ITCZ AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH 
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS NORTH OF THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH WED. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY 
WED THROUGH FRI AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO DIMINISH AND 
WIND WAVES S OF 15N TO SUBSIDE.
   
$$
HUFFMAN