000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE DEC 9 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALES IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING... 
PULSING ABOVE 35 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
FROM ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. 
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 15-16 FT TODAY. A 
LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SW 
AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N82W TO 05N98W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N98W TO 09N124W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 93W...AND 60 
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

MAINLY NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 13 FT COVERS A LARGE 
PORTION OF NW WATERS. THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 
EXPECTED NEAR 30N140W. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD 
INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND RETAIN 
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AS IT REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 
15-21 FT N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA 
LATER IN THE WEEK. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 
30N...HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT AND BEHIND 
IT ARE ANTICIPATED BEGINNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG 
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NW WATERS SAT. 

A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD 
TO 16N W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PERTURBATIONS 
ALONG THE ITCZ AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 
FRESH TRADES ACROSS WESTERN WATERS NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE 
THROUGH WED. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WED THROUGH FRI 
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS...ALLOWING TRADE 
WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO DIMINISH AND WIND WAVES S OF 15N TO 
SUBSIDE.
   
$$
MUNDELL