000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE DEC 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING...PULSING UP TO 40 KT MAINLY DURING 
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM ENHANCEMENT BY 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE 
WED AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE 
LATEST WW3 AND TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 
BUILDING UP TO THE 16-18 FT RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. THE 
OVERALL AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N100W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 09N115W TO 07N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W... 
AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

MIXED SWELL...MAINLY NW...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT COVERS A 
LARGE PORTION OF THE NW WATERS. THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 
EXPECTED NEAR 30N140W AND PEAKING AT AROUND 21 FT BY 48 HOURS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICAL 
WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND RETAIN CONSIDERABLE ENERGY  
AS IT REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT 
AND SAT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 15-21 FT N OF 27N 
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 30N...HOWEVER FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT AND BEHIND IT ARE ANTICIPATED 
BEGINNING WED INTO WED NIGHT.

A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 
15N110W AND TO THE WSW BEYOND 24N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING TO THE N 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS 
THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.
   
$$
HUFFMAN