000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE DEC 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING...PULSING UP TO 40 KT MAINLY DURING 
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM ENHANCEMENT BY 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE 
WED AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE 
LATEST TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 17-18 FT 
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE OVERALL AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR 
GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE 
REGION REACHING NEAR 08N105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 06N95W. THE   
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 09N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W 
AND 92W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 116W... 
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO  
11N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TO PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

MIXED SWELL...MAINLY NW...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT COVERS A 
LARGE PORTION OF THE NW WATERS. THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 
EXPECTED NEAR 30N140W AND PEAKING AT AROUND 16 FT BY 24 HOURS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICAL 
WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND RETAIN CONSIDERABLE ENERGY  
AS IT REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT 
AND SAT. MAX SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 14-20 FT N OF 27N BEHIND 
THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 30N...HOWEVER FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT AND BEHIND IT ARE ANTICIPATED 
BEGINNING 00 UTC THU.

A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 
15N109W AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 24N139W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING TO THE N 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL 
WATERS N OF THE ITCZ...OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO STRONG LEVELS 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY