000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082127 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON DEC 08 2014

CORRECTED SATELLITE IMAGERY TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING...PULSING UP TO 40 KT DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WED 
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE LATEST 
TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 18 FT LATE 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE OVERALL AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION 
REACHING NEAR 09N105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N97W. THE   
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N97W TO 09N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

MIXED SWELL...MAINLY NW...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT COVERS A 
LARGE PORTION OF THE NW WATERS. THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED...WITH HIGHEST SEAS 
EXPECTED NEAR 30N140W AND PEAKING AT AROUND 16 FT. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICAL 
WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND RETAIN CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AS 
IT REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT AND 
SAT. MAX SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 14-20 FT N OF 27N BEHIND THE 
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 30N.

A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 
15N103W AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGING TO THE N 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL 
WATERS N OF THE ITCZ...OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO STRONG LEVELS 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY