000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON DEC 8 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH WED MORNING...PULSING UP TO 40 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS UP TO 14-15 FT...WITH 
THE OVERALL AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING S-SW AWAY 
FROM THE SOURCE REGION REACHING NEAR 09N101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N85W TO 05N96W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N96W TO 09N116W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING IN THE EARLY MORNING DURING 
MAX NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

LARGE NW SWELL TO 10-12 FT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ACROSS NW WATERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 
WED...WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED NEAR 30N140W. UNUSUALLY STRONG 
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO TROPICAL WATERS WED NIGHT 
THROUGH FRI...AND RETAIN CONSIDERABLE ENERGY AS IT REACHES THE 
COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MAX SEAS 
PROJECTED TO BE 14-20 FT N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS 
ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN N OF 30N.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N124W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHERN WATERS TO 17N. PERTURBATIONS IN THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE ITCZ WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ AND ALLOW AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS 
FROM 07N TO 18N TO PERSIST IN WESTERN WATERS. THIS AREA OF TRADE 
SWELL MERGE WITH THE LARGER AREA OF NW SWELL TO COVER A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 115W TUE AND WED.
   
$$
MUNDELL