000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON DEC 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH WED MORNING...PULSING UP TO 40 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS  
UP TO 15-16 FT...WITH THE OVERALL AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
PROPAGATING S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION REACHING NEAR 
09N103W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 05N92W TO 
06N101W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N101W TO 08N109W TO 08N120W TO 
10N129W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 
10N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSATE TO 
FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING AT 30 
KT THIS MORNING DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO UP TO 8-10 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS HAS 
DISSIPATED...LEFTOVER NW SWELL REMAINS WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 14 
FT RANGE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N128W TO 18N140W. THE HIGHER VALUES 
OF SWELL IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW CORNER...30N140W WILL SUBSIDE 
SLIGHTLY BY TUE MORNING...AND AGAIN BUILD INTO A RANGE OF 12 TO 
15 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT STRONG 
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WED NIGHT 
THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN MOST ENERGY AS IT 
APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT INTO 
SAT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 14-20 FT N OF 27N BEHIND 
THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. CURRENTLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN N OF 30N.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N123W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 13N101W AND SW TO NEAR 19N138W. A SERIES OF 
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS ARE MOVING WESTWARD     
IN THE ITCZ W OF 125W WITH VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND 
THE ITCZ WILL SUPPORT AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG 
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH MON. TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH 
RESIDUAL SWELL ORIGINATING FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS WILL ALLOW 
FOR COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW 
WATERS THROUGH MON...MERGING WITH THE SET OF NW SWELL MENTIONED 
ABOVE ON TUE INTO EARLY WED.
   
$$
HUFFMAN