000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON DEC 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.  
       
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH WED MORNING...PULSING UP TO 40 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS  
UP TO 15-16 FT...WITH THE OVERALL AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
PROPAGATING S-SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION REACHING        
NEAR 11N103W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N97W. THE   
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N97W TO 09N102W TO 08N120W TO 09N128W 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EARLIER HI-RESOLUTION ASCAT SCATTEROMETER 
DATA ALONG WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NW 
WINDS FROM 26N TO 28N WITHIN 45 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT...OCCASIONALLY UP 
TO 6 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSATE TO 
FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PEAKING AT 30 
KT EARLY MON MORNING DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8-10 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED  ASSOCIATED WINDS AT 20 KT  
OR LESS HOWEVER NW SWELL OF 8-14 FT COVERS THE NW WATERS W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N128W TO 20N140W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS 
TIME TOMORROW WHILE THE SWELL BUILDS TO UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N140W 
BY 48 HOURS. THE EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH A 
LINE FROM 00N140W TO 10N125W TO 28N115W BY 48 HOURS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N122W EXTENDS  
A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N110W AND SW TO NEAR 24N134W. A SERIES OF 
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS OR WEAK TROUGHS ARE MOVING WESTWARD     
IN THE ITCZ W OF 125W WITH VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND 
THE ITCZ WILL SUPPORT AND MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG 
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH MON. TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH 
RESIDUAL SWELL ORIGINATING FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS WILL ALLOW 
FOR COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND SW WATERS 
THROUGH MON...MERGING WITH THE SET OF NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE 
ON TUE.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE SUBTROPICS 
WILL PLUNGE FAR SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS WED NIGHT 
THROUGH FRI...RETAINING A CONSIDERABLE PUNCH BY THE TIME IT 
REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. 
MAX SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 14-20 FT N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT 
AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. CURRENTLY GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST N OF 30N WITH THE LATEST 
GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES UP TO 10 PERCENT REACHING TO 29.5N IN 
THE N CENTRAL WATERS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY